After the shock defeat to Ipswich just under two weeks ago, the Championship promotion odds had a very different look to what we see now.

To finish as champions, Newcastle went out to odds as long as 40/1 with some bookies, as Brighton had a seven point lead with only three games each left to play.

Chris Hughton’s team had won five matches in a row, whilst Rafa’s players had won just two of their last eight games.

No wonder Brighton were at such an unbackable odds-on price.

At this point, both Huddersfield and Reading (to a lesser extent) were also seen as a serious threat to Newcastle getting automatic promotion. Thankfully, promotion is now in the back, but what about going up as champions?

Since that defeat to Ipswich, Newcastle have now beaten both Preston (4-1) and Cardiff (2-0), whilst Brighton have lost to both Norwich and Bristol City without scoring a goal.

The net effect of this is that now Newcastle are 11/10 (from 40/1 less than two weeks ago) to win the title, with Brighton a best priced 4/5.

Newcastle host Barnsley next Sunday whilst Brighton travel to Villa, it is all to play for!

As for the promotion play-offs, the four spots have been decided, with Leeds having a three point gap and 14 goals to close on 6th placed Fulham, which isn’t going to happen.

Despite going into the final match confirmed in sixth place (they are four points behind fifth place Huddersfield), interesting to see that Fulham are 2/1 favourites to win the play-offs. They are the form team and playing good football (including 3-1 win at Newcastle) and scoring lots of goals (top scorers with 83 in the Championship, one more than Newcastle).

Huddersfield looked for so long the biggest threat to Newcastle but are 3/1 third favourites (Sheff Wed 11/4) to go up – Wagner took the strategic step of playing a second team (10 changes) against Birmingham yesterday, which didn’t go down too well with Birmingham’s relegation rivals.

Interestingly, Reading are the outsiders. Despite being so consistent throughout the season and currently in third place, they are 5/1 to go up through the play-offs.

This weekend’s results:

Friday 28 April

Cardiff 0 Newcastle 2

Saturday 29 April

Birmingham 2 Huddersfield 0

Fulham 1 Brentford 1

Ipswich 0 Sheff Wed 1

Leeds 3 Norwich 3

Reading 1 Wigan 0

Brighton 0 Bristol City 1

Best odds available to finish as Champions (from various bookies):

4/5 Brighton

11/10 Newcastle United

To be promoted:

Brighton and Newcastle now promoted

2/1 Fulham

11/4 Sheff Wed

3/1 Huddersfield

5/1 Reading

500/1 Leeds

  • Simon Ritter

    Fulham seem to wobble whenever the expectation builds. Blew a couple of easy chances to make the top six earlier this season, then failed to beat Brentford yesterday. They might play the best football and might be the form team but they look mentally weak. Though not as feeble as Leeds (tee-hee).

  • Mayor Vaughn

    If i were a betting man i’d back Fulham in the playoffs.

    • Desree

      If they do go up we can forget about signing Cairney

  • TheTradge

    A couple of weeks ago I thought there was no hope for us winning the title, however Brighton seem to have suffered an almighty collapse, in this final run they’ve lost to the team many expected they’d beat easily (Bristol City), and Newcastle are taking advantage with aplomb. It isn’t going to get any easier for them in their last match either, as they face Villa away, a team who have been solid as a rock at home this season, only 3 teams have left with maximum points, even Newcastle couldn’t get any more than a draw. Basically if Brighton lose to Villa, we’ll only need to draw against Barnsley, however they have nothing to play for and may well be in holiday mode, so I’d say with Newcastle pushing to win the title they’ll be throwing absolutely everything behind this match. Of course anything could happen, and Brighton have possibly the best quality of any other championship side, so many would expect they’ll beat Villa, however form isn’t on their side, as they haven’t scored in over 200 minutes of football and they’ve only got 1 clean sheet in their last 6 matches. Either way it’s going to be a very exciting last day of the season!