I can understand the nerves taking hold when it comes to automatic promotion.

Newcastle fans would be on easy street if it wasn’t for Huddersfield, with the rest of the chasing back at least 11 points adrift with only nine games left.

David Wagner’s side are six points behind Brighton and Newcastle’s 77 points, with a game in hand.

No room for complacency but the reality is that with so few matches remaining, how many wins/points would it actually take to finish the job off.

I know 90 points is usually seen as certain of promotion and many are thinking it could need more than that but surely the reality is that at the very most, it will be only a point or two.

Looking at the remaining matches, I fancy us to definitely beat Wigan, Burton, Preston and Barnsley at home.

Yes the away form has been better but against these sides that are struggling or have little to play for, we will come out on top where it matters.

I think at least a point at home to Leeds and the same at Birmingham and Ipswich.

This is quite conservative I feel, allowing then defeats at Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff who are now in good form.

That would give Newcastle another 15 points, taking them onto 92 at the season’s end.

With Newcastle having a massive goal difference advantage, it would mean Huddersfield needing at least 93 points, with 22 points or more from their final 10 matches.

You are talking at least seven wins from the 10 games plus a point.

At this stage of the season, with a small squad and so much pressure, I just can’t see them managing so many points from the games they have left.

Plus I think the reality is that Newcastle will get a few more points than that minimal 15 from their last 27.


Saturday 18 March – Birmingham v Newcastle (3pm)

Saturday 1 April – Newcastle v Wigan (3pm).

Wednesday 5 April – Newcastle v Burton (7.45pm)

Saturday 8 April – Sheffield Wednesday v Newcastle (5.30pm) SKY SPORTS

Friday 14 April – Newcastle v Leeds (7.45pm) SKY SPORTS

Monday 17 April – Ipswich v Newcastle (3pm)

Monday 24 April – Newcastle v Preston (7.45pm) SKY SPORTS

Saturday 29 April  – Cardiff v Newcastle (3pm)

Sunday 7 May – Newcastle v Barnsley (12 noon)

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  • Mike

    No easy games….take it one step at time

  • Jimblag23

    You’re forgetting Huddersfield are potentially (most likely) only 3 points behind us.

  • Trevor Reaveley

    I don’t ‘fancy us’ beating anyone. It’s Newcastle and you never know which team will turn up!
    More than happy to take it one match at a time and see how it goes.

  • 1957

    I’ve tried the Chronicle’s result predictor over the last couple of weeks and trying to be as objective as possible I consistently have Huddersfield finishing top with 95 points, with us and Brighton on 93, goal difference is going to be vital.

    • Damon Horner

      your predictions would see them drop just 11 points in the 3.5 months from Jan 21st. If they achieve that they fully deserve it.

  • GToon

    Ok, nice prediction and all that but how about taking current form into consideration. Brighton are playing well and are winning home and away, so are huddersfield. Meanwhile we are sitting back letting the opposition have the ball for 80 minutes, hoping to win it in the last 10. We are not playing the kind of football that is going to get us more points than the other two. For me it’s that simple, unfortunately. And we are now starting to pick up injuries. Luckily Ashley saw this might happen and gave Rafa funds to strengthen in January. Oh, wait a minute…..

    • Damon Horner

      All down to interpretation.

      You say we’re on bad form, I could counter and say our bad form included beating the best in the league.

      You say Brighton are winning home and away, I could counter and say we picked up more points than them in our last 9 games (remaining amount) despite you implying they’re definitely superior.

      Nothing is ever certain and there are good and bad factors which points to both a failure and success when it comes to automatic promotion, bottom line is we’ve done enough so far so we need to have faith we will continue to do enough, after all we should be backing the lads shouldn’t we?

      • GToon

        I say we are on bad form because even when we win we play poorly. The Brighton game was decent as we had a go and deserved our win but some of the other results we have scraped are hardly the football of the top team. Yes I’m backing them when I’m at the game but here, at home, with time to think unfortunately I don’t think we will be in the top two in May.

        • Damon Horner

          we will have to see what happens really. Writing was on the wall all season. We have Rafa, an overhauled team and a reputation other times want to chew into, this season was never ever going to pretty. It’s gone true to anticipation.

      • 1957

        Just because some of us aren’t sure more of the same will be enough to seal automatic promotion doesn’t mean we don’t back the club. Everyone wants to believe we will get there but with the exception of Brighton we’ve played poorly in recent games while still picking up points. A lot of contributors on this site talk about Brighton or Huddersfield dropping points over the remaining games, it could just as easily be us.

        • Damon Horner

          Nobody is sure of anything. Booing at the Fulham game plays down your opinion that the club is being backed, even after one bad game, that’s not backing in any capacity.
          it’s a funny phenomenon really that we’re generally expected to buck the results trend of the season and be worse than we’ve shown apparently while our opponents are always seen as an unstoppable force.
          Quite frankly, if more of the same doesn’t see us go up, we’ve just witnessed and fell foul of the most incredible season in the Championship. Only one team has got 90 and not gone up. To suggest totals of 95 like Maximus Moose is absolutely smashing records not just breaking them.

  • MichaelMaximusMoose

    Not this season it wont, it`ll be nearer 95 upwards for auto promotion

    • Lord

      A bit pessimistic that, Leeds in 4th can mathematically only get to 93 points. Huddersfield would need to win 8, lose 2 or win 7, draw 3 to get to 95. Possible but I wouldn’t put money on them doing that well, even with a fairly tame run in.

  • magpiefifer

    Sam,I really hope you are correct with your predictions,but I would say that a points total of 92 will not be enough to see off Brighton and Huddersfield.Those two teams are well capable of getting at least 93 points,so I’m going to keep everything crossed that a) we get at least 93 points,and b) either Brighton or Huddersfield will drop sufficient points for us to go up automatically.
    One things for sure,it is going to be tense run-in!

  • Blackburn1066

    We NUFC only have to worry about how NUFC play over the next ten games all the other teams will do what they have to do. Don’t put in place what is not yet in place, stay cool and we will be ok. ” Those who stick together, will cross the line together”

  • bagehot99

    If HTFC pick up 2 points per game, they’ll get to 91. If we do the same, we’ll get to 95.

    We’re MILES ahead percentage wise, but playing poorly, and too cautiously. A bookie will tell you we’re almost a certainty, but any Geordie will tell you we can still blow this. Tense run in. HTFC have zero pressure, and we are neck-deep in it.

  • wowski13

    While I agree that we should be beating Preston at home I don’t think they’ll be an easy game. They’ve been on a pretty decent run of late and are still in with a shot at the play-offs. If they are still in play-off contention come our game, it will be a tense encounter.