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Significant changes in Sky Sports predictions for Newcastle United

5 years ago

What are the chances of Newcastle United going up as Champions, finishing Top Two, or simply making Top six?

Sky Sports have used their ‘Premier Predictor’ model to work out a percentage chance of these things happening.

The Sky Sports Predictor works by allocating ranking points based on teams’ performances – taking into account the difficulty of the opposition, home advantage and margin of victory.

Their predictor said a week ago (13 January 2017)  that:

At least being top six was a 99% certainty for Newcastle.

As for being first or second, it was an 83% chance.

Whilst finishing as champions was a 37% possibility.

After a dramatic weekend of results which saw Newcastle win and Brighton, Reading & Huddersfield all lose, now (19 January 2017) the percentage chances are:

At least being top six is a 99% certainty for Newcastle.

As for being first or second, it is now an 82% chance.

Whilst finishing as champions is now a 47% possibility.

These are the two tables – after and before last weekend’s results.

Probability 19 January 2017:

In contrast, Brighton have gone from  57% to 44% probability to finish top according to the Sky Sports stats and from 87% to 79%  to finish top two and the same as Newcastle, still a 99% certainty to be at least top six.

As for anybody else sneaking into the top two, Reading are still a 10% probability to finish top two but after beating Derby (and due to the other results), Leeds have gone from 8% to 18% probability of top two and have overtaken Reading as the most likely threat to Newcastle and Brighton.

Probability 13 January 2017:


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