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BBC Sport gets in on the act with predictions for Newcastle and Championship table at end of season

5 years ago

BBC Sport have got in on the act and carried predictions for how the Championship table will look at the end of this season.

They have used the conclusions of SAM (Sports Analytics Machine), which is the’ super computer built by Ian McHale, who is professor of sports analytics at the University of Salford, together with his colleague Dr Tarak Kharrat.

SAM was asked to predict the result of every Championship match between now and the end of the season.

SAM takes into account a wide range of factors to work out match results, looking at average performances so far and calculating what that means for the remaining fixtures. It is based on players remaining fit and continuing with their average performance levels, so a long-term injury to Newcastle striker Dwight Gayle would/could have a significant impact on these predicted outcomes.

The results (see below) point to the Championship table having Newcastle and Brighton as still the top two clubs after the final whistle is blown on the final match in May (Sky Sports have a similar predictions model and you can see their results HERE).

The Super Computer predicts a four point advantage for Newcastle, ending on 98 and then Brighton with 94 points, third placed Leeds tipped to be 22 points behind the Magpies.

When it comes to automatic promotion, Newcastle are given a 99% chance and Brighton 96.5% (the SAM predictions came before Brighton’s dramatic 2-1 win last night against Sheffield Wednesday).

As for finishing in top spot, Newcastle are 67% likely and Brighton 32%, according to the analysis.

Final Championship Table as predicted by SAM:

Newcastle’s opponents today, Rotherham, are currently none points adrift of safety and rated as 99% certainties to be relegated.



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