When it is worth having a bet on Newcastle United…
When you look at what has happened in the 10 Premier League matches so far, it isn’t difficult to work out what Newcastle United need to do to win a game.
I have a friend (honestly!) who isn’t really a big football fan, he is a Newcastle fan if anything but what his big hobby is, is gambling.
He looks coldly at the form and other factors; strength of opposition, the venue (home or away), injuries/fitness and so on. Not really any different to a horse race and trying to decide who to have a bet on.
Like horse racing, form in football must be the biggest factor when trying to work out who will win. The more matches you are winning then the more likely you are to win and vice-versa.
I was out for a drink last night with my gambling mate and he was explaining his cold and calculating analysis of Newcastle so far this season, based on the 10 matches.
The first thing he assumes before a match, is that Newcastle are almost certain to let at least two goals in.
In eight of the ten Premier League games this has been the case, only the two games against Man Utd and Arsenal within the space of seven days of each other, saw a clean sheet and then only one conceded against the Gunners.
So an 80% chance of conceding at least two goals in any game. My friend now thinks that the position has just got a lot worse on this front, with Tim Krul in goal he believed it was very likely two would be conceded and now if you factor in local knowledge, he says he thinks it is now pretty much guaranteed Newcastle will concede two or more in EVERY match.
Rob Elliot had played 15 Premier League games for Newcastle and conceded 30 goals, now he has let in another five in the two most recent and it could have been a lot worse in that Norwich match, the woodwork saving him twice.
With his gambling head on, my mate reckons the form tells him that if Newcastle United are going to let in at least two goals, this means they have to score at least three of their own to stand a chance of winning (not rocket science).
No surprise that the only time (once in 10 games) Newcastle scored three goals or more they won a match, the 6-2 very flattering considering how many chances the opposition had.
Last season United managed to score three goals on only three occasions and ironically only won one of them against Hull, the other two against Burnley and Palace were draws. You might also want to register the fact that two of these three clubs were relegated…
Last season Newcastle had the second worst defence in the Premier League and this season only one club (Norwich) has conceded more so far.
So my cold calculating (realistic?) friend thinks betting on Newcastle to win means that you have to believe they will score at least three goals, or maybe even more now that Rob Elliot is in goal.
My friend doesn’t intend to bet on Newcastle winning a match any time soon….
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