So it seems that some Newcastle United fans want to give Uncle Mike another chance, they want to continue the policy of ‘wait and see’ that has gone so well for the past 8 years.

Give the owner the chance to deliver on the vague statement he gave to Sky Sports before last weekend’s relegation decider.

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Whilst I could not disagree more with this stance, given the historical evidence which strongly points to this being nothing more than a well-timed PR exercise ahead of more disappointment in the appointment of a manager (sorry, head coach) and another myriad of players that we struggle to ‘get over the line’. …

It would be remiss of me not to have a look in a little more detail at what is required for the club to be in a position to win something, as the owner says he wants to.

Coaching Staff

To move the club into a position to win something, would firstly mean stripping away the entire coaching staff who have proved themselves utterly incompetent over the last few seasons, not an easy task when you consider that many of them have a further five years to run on their current deals.

Of those currently in place it is hard to pick fault with only Woodman, the goalkeeping coach, which would mean the likely need to pay off Carver, Stone and even Pedro.

I have no knowledge of how much money this would cost as none of us are privy to their wages, and whilst I cannot imagine that they are amongst the best paid coaching staff in the Premier League – I believe a conservative estimate of £3m to pay up all of their contracts is fair. This would average them at being on around £200k per year, or £4k per week.  Cost £3m

Replacing Coaching Staff

To replace them with more capable and experienced staff would undoubtedly cost more.

I think that even the most fanciful of us will realise that we are not going to get Jurgen Klopp, plus I believe that the majority will also agree that appointing a failed Championship manager like Steve McLaren is not the way forward to winning anything either.

So we are left with a middle bracket of coaches, neither truly proven or abject failures. We are talking about people like Slaven Bilic, Michael Laudrup, Remi Garde, Mark Hughes perhaps, and I have even seen a rumour linking Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink.

If we were to pick from the top of that tree with Bilic and Hughes, we would be looking at paying compensation of a similar level which we received for Pardew, plus a wage of at least £1m per year, plus bonuses, and that is before we think about their back room team. Conservatively, over a 4 year contract, I would estimate the cost of this to be around £10m

Playing Staff

With players out of contract, others seemingly running towards the exit door, and a squad which was already too small to fill its allocated 25 spots in January. There is undoubtedly much business to be done if we are to assemble a squad capable of competing on three fronts, now we are targeting the cups….

We are almost certain to lose R Taylor, Jonas and Sammy, and it seems and they will not be the only ones, the deadwood will have to be moved out, players like Williamson, Anita, Obertan and Marveaux.

We must also consider will we actually hang on to Tiote, Krul, Cisse, Janmaat, Coloccini and Sissoko (despite his remarks suggesting that he wants to stay). It is only an estimate but I believe we will be around 8 players short from our current 23 man squad shortly, leaving 10 places to be filled to maximise the squad to 25 players.

It is not all doom and gloom from the current squad though, we should finally see what De Jong can do, Haidara will be fit and other recent signings such as Cabella and Colback with have had what they hope will be their most difficult season at Newcastle already, they should be ready for anything.

Incoming, we have Karl Darlow and Jamaal Lescelles from Forest; add to them Armstrong and Kemen being promoted to the first team squad and suddenly we only actually need 5 or 6 players (yeh right), but they will have to be of the requisite quality.

Top priority has to be given to a pair of strikers, a pair of centre backs and a left back, all have to be able to hit the ground running as members of the first team, if we are truly to improve and challenge for anything, other than the wooden spoon again.

A pair of strikers capable of hitting 15+ goals in the top flight could cost anything from £20m to £50m, unless you fall extremely lucky.

QPR have let it be known that they value Austin at £20m, I think he could be bought for about £4m less than that personally. Add the Serbian lad from Anderlecht (Mitrovic) for another £15m and you have a strike partnership which could be worthy.

newcastle united

In defence we will be bolstered by Lascelles, but he is not ready. There has been talk of Ashley Williams from Swansea and Tomkins or Reid from West Ham, any two of those would likely cost the best part of £15m and you could substitute their names for any other decent Premier League centre half. I have to confess that I have no idea about a potential left back, but for one of the required standard I’ll insert an arbitrary figure of £5m.

Aside from the major signings I think we can expect the regular clutch of young, foreign talent bought more in hope than expectation, this could potentially amount to a further £5m.

Cost £55m (plus £20m in wages and fees)

So the cost of actually trying to win something from our current position is, in my opinion, around £88m. That is the monetary cost, that is before we discuss the culture change needed by the entire club to really try in cup competitions, to give a little more power, influence and say in football matters to the manager, to not accept second best, to forgo budgeting considerations and speculate on winning for once.

I’ll be interested to see who actually thinks that this might happen, who believes that this total overhaul is something which the club is capable of without any guarantees of success, personally, I don’t.

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  • alreet

    Grabbed the words out of my mouth.
    Very good article. Ive been shouting for players like mensah of evian who played a stonker in the world cup and just never stops running. Not sure if ayew would come here but austin and mitrovic should surely be nailed on. See what stoke want for arnautovic if thats how you spell it. Get aarons in there to start then we could have a beginning of a strong back bone.
    This should and really has to be our biggest summer for alot of years. If we have 30mil in the bank then 70mil sky money lets actually use it and make a quality team.
    It will have only taken 9 years ash. How long now before you win summink.
    Charns. Get your passport and your bag packed. No holiday till we have our new manager. Staff and players. Good luck lee you could be the daddy?!?!

  • Alltomuch

    Fair read,
    That would at least give us back our hope
    Great to at last win something but trying is a great start

  • Demented_Man

    Yes, I think that is a fair estimate.

    However, history suggests the players who are leaving will not be adequately replaced, never mind the squad being strengthened.

  • Sickandtiredstill

    Aye, the big man doesn’t get involved in football decisions – he said so live on tv. So, people, Lee Charnley decided to send 5 players to Rangers, in January, all by coincidence did he? 

    There’s as much chance of him spending 80 million as there was of him telling the truth live on Sky. Yet staggeringly a good percentage of ‘supporters’ chose to believe him.

  • Andgeo

    The fat man doesn’t give us a second thought and charnley is incompetent. It will all get left till the last minute as usual and we will end up with whats left on the shelf.

  • Tadger

    Good analysis need to pass it on to Charnley it might help him with the sums as numbers seem to confuse him (like how many points needed to stay up) however its only 65 mill initial spend as wages of those out would contribute to the wages those in. Less 34 mill and all Ashley nee Charnley has to find is 31 mill (Carrols money?) and there you have it a net spend of nothing which is right in line with their policy of doing sweet FA

  • Opiner1

    Seems harsh to include Anita in the deadwood category. He proved on Sunday that he is a decent player. If he was given a run in the team in his preferred position, under a good manager (though I have little faith we’ll appoint one) he’d be a useful player at the very least.

    The most important change that needs to be made is to the manager and coaching staff. With that in place, we could have a team trained to play in a certain way and then become less reliant on one or two good players coming up with moments of magic to win games for us on their own as we have done for a good few years now, with lesser players being able to slot into the system even if they weren’t necessarily as good as the player they were deputising for. 

    Personally, I’m not a huge fan of Austin. From the times I’ve seen QPR this season, he seems like a player who scores goals but doesn’t get involved much in the build up, and we already have a player like that in Cisse. If we were to spend big on a striker we should be looking for something different to what we already have, preferably a striker with a bit more pace.

    Anyway, this is all fantasy stuff. The manager will be Carver or Mclaren, and the coaching staff will remain pretty much the same except maybe one or two additions should Mclaren be appointed. Ashley’s empty words haven’t convinced me that we’ll see any major change in direction over the summer.

  • Toon Magpie

    Winning something means Ashley’s leaves, now is he serious about that I doubt it. If we win something fans would be a happy and maybe even forgive Humpty. If we don’t win anything Ashley is in for a great fall, just this brick called Carver is holding his wall up. CARVER OUT will force change the change we need to happen as he is not good enough manager.

  • Brian Standen

    I actually think you are a little conservative, however anything up to £150 million is only back pocket change for fatty, and he would reap some rewards by having Direct Rot splashed across the globe

  • NottsToon

    Anita had 2 good games last season. He’s a decent footballer but not really built to play where he wants to in the Premier League in my opinion.
    The names in the piece were just cherry picked from speculation, you could change any one of them.
    The figures and values assume that Ashley continues his “hard bargain” stance in negotiations, but yes £150m is not out of the question.
    It won’t happen.

  • cwtoon88

    NottsToon He started one game in his proper position which is pushing on from the midfield and he was outstanding. The majority of the seaon he has been either left as the deep lying player which he is physically unsuited to while Mackem Jack wanders free or he has covered at fullback.
    How many good games has Mackem Jack had? He definitely hasnt been past 7/10 at any point and his best 2 games at SJP still remain in a sunderland shirt. Give Anita the game time Mackem Jack has had in the right position and he will do at least as well. Onething for certain he wont play a simple pass then go and mark an opposition player so he doesnt get it back.
    Take your local lad bias off and you would realise Dummett is worse than those players you say are deadwood ad Colback is average at best.
    The signing ideas you come up with look like they have came from champ man or Fifa, Tomkins is championship at best and have you ever seen Mitrovic play?

  • NottsToon

    As I said, the names are picked from speculation, not my personal choices, you can put whatever names in you want to.
    We’re going to have to agree to disagree on Anita because I think he’s ropy. Colback is the new Scott Parker, average at best, same for Dummet.

  • DavidDrape

    excellent again NT. i don’t believe him one jot. as many know he is crapping himself that his plan is falling apart so he comes on TV to ile again. fancy saying he wants to win something then to let others make the decision making, it simply doesn’t add up. i expect this is all down to lack of renewals. going back to the out of this world homecomings of 74 & 76 this remarkable scenes across town & in SJP spelled out to me then how big our club is and of course the potential it has. strange how the big man is the only one person who cannot see this or doesn’t want to see it.

  • Brian Standen

    Just to add we can all cherry pick names of who to let go, who to keep or who to sign, and with £150 million potential spend then it’s suddenly really exciting…….but, none of us can forget just who it is who holds the ace card, yes it is of course MIke Ashley ( gonna stop calling him fatty in case he reads this and takes offence and decides not to spend, oh wait a minute we don’t believe him anyway) , so fatty it’s over to you! Make a deal you spend £100 million plus and I won’t call you names anymore!

  • cwtoon88

    NottsToon Fair enough, I personally think Mitrovic will struggle to adapt to the prem.
    You have to see though that Vern is always the one taken off and always the one dropped, he never gets a good run of games in the right position.
    Can agree Colback is average but Dummett has to be the worst footballer Iv seen in the black and white in 25 years following the team. How he and Willo are professional footballers are beyond me they both look like they would struggle to get into a sunday league side

  • kuromori

    Andgeo At best.

  • andewalsh

    We need a bigger squad. With better quality players. We won’t get that.
    Ashley has identified that:- 1) There are several contracts expiring2) There are bigger guns coming into the premiership willing to pay more money
    This is his whole raison d’etre when he says he will continue to invest. That whole sentence really does not take much picking does it? “Continue to invest” means he does not have a problem with his current business model at all. Now he has an opportunity to look like he is bothered enough to look like he’s putting his hand in his pocket because he HAD to invest anyway. This tactic coupled with the delay on a manager slows the rate of cancellations.