Ahead of Newcastle’s trip to Chelsea, various details about past relegation pointers in the Premier League have been discussed.
I don’t see a Newcastle relegation fight at this moment in time but after only picking up 16 points from this stage last season, it would be folly to think we are safe just yet.
However, Newcastle at the moment have six points less (27) and there are eighteen matches to go.
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These are some of the relegation related stats from the Premier League era;
37 The average points to avoid relegation
34 Lowest number of points to avoid relegation (West Brom 2004/05)
42 Highest number of points and still get relegated (West Ham 2002/03)
Looking at the current shambles at St. James’ Park and if no credible permanent manager/head coach is brought in and/or some quality players bought in January, I predict the season going along the following lines;
January: Chelsea (A) Lose, Southampton (H) Lose, Hull (A) Draw 1 Point
February: Stoke (H) Draw, Crystal Palace (A) Draw, Manchester City (A) Lose, Aston Villa (H) Win 5 Points
March: Man Utd (H) Lose, Everton (A) Lose, Arsenal (H) Lose 0 Points
April: Sunderland (A) (Draw), Liverpool (A) Lose, Spurs (H) Lose, Swansea (H) Draw 2 Points
May: Leicester (A) Lose, West Brom (H) Win, QPR (A) Draw, West Ham (H) Draw 5 Points
I definitely can’t see the team getting anything from these next two matches against Chelsea and an impressive Southampton, then after that we have cycles of matches.
You look at Hull, Stoke, Palace and Villa amongst the following five matches and Newcastle may well have to pick points up there to make it comfortable.
As there then follows Man Utd, Everton, Arsenal, Sunderland, Liverpool, Spurs and Swansea covering an entire two months before the final run-in.
Last season’s second half collapse saw a dismal run of hammerings against the likes of Man U, Spurs and Everton and unless Newcastle get their act together then the risk will be there.
I make it that we will pick up 13 more points from these games based on the current set-up at St. James’ Park, with 2 wins and 7 draws, as well as 9 defeats.
Last season the final 18 matches brought 5 wins, 1 draw and 12 defeats – in fact those stats could have looked even worse if it wasn’t for last gasp winners against Villa and Palace.
If it was another 13 points United added, that would take us to 40 points which in all likelihood would prove enough, though with little margin for error when you look at 37 points being the average to avoid relegation.
Looking at recent seasons, the big worry is that this group of players have had a tendency to collapse once things turn bad and with Cisse away, it is a massive responsibility to throw on Ayoze Perez to come up with the goals.
No doubt the story from inside St. James’ Park would be that once the likes of Siem De Jong (still to prove himself in PL and injury prone) and Rolando Aarons (played next to no first team football) are back then we’ll be ok.
However, it is a very risky strategy and is simply inviting trouble if no signings are brought in this January and a credible permanent person to manage/coach them.
The team currently third bottom are a certain Crystal Palace who are ten points behind as we speak – it is a pretty dismal perspective that I can’t hand on heart say with any certainty we’ll even finish above Palace and Crystal Palace as things stand.