Newcastle United 25 Goals Short Of Safety – 33 Goals Extra For Progress
It won’t be news to you that Newcastle United are a bit short of goals at the moment, our only recognisable striker totally out of form last season and now recovering from a serious injury, while the midfield is an almost total no goals or creativity zone.
Newcastle scored 43 goals last season and no club that finished above United’s tenth place scored less, while Champions Manchester City basically lapped NUFC getting on for twice, with a spectacular 102 goals.
Out of the 43 you can take out Remy (14), Cabaye (7), Shola (2), Own Goals (2) and almost certainly Hatem Ben Arfa (3).
That leaves Newcastle with 15 of those last season goals coming from players still at the club (another shocking statistic is that United failed to score in 10 of the final 16 PL matches);
Gouffran (6) (worryingly he hasn’t scored since Boxing Day), Sissoko (3), Cisse (2), Anita (1), Dummett (1), Steven Taylor (1), and Debuchy (1).
In terms of top tier goals added so far this summer, we have Jack Colback who scored 3 last season for the Mackems, which would mean you could say we have roughly 18 goals you could count on from our current squad.
Looking at targets for next season, the first one would be safety (finishing 17th), while progress would be establishing the club in the top 8.
Over the last four seasons, this is how many goals the clubs have scored who have finished 17th and 8th;
17th – 2013/14 (43), 2012/13 (41), 2011/12 (43) and 2010/11 (46)
8th – 2013/14 (54), 2012/13 (53), 2011/12 (47) and 2010/11 (49)
Averaging them out, it suggests you need to get around 43 goals to survive in the Premier League and 51 to sneak into the top eight.
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Getting my fingers and thumbs out, unless the likes of Tiote, Anita and the other less obvious sources for goals, such as defenders, suddenly spring to life, Newcastle need to bring in extra players who are capable of scoring another 25 goals to guarantee safety and another 33 if we are looking to move up from last season.
I have no real problem with the two signings so far, just so long as Ayoze Perez is a punt for the future and Jack Colback is a steady bargain squad signing.
It however, doesn’t take away the pressing need for a very minimum of two credible goalscoring strikers and a creative/scoring midfielder as a very minimum.
I believe those players could and should deliver the 25 goals or so to guarantee safety, two strikers getting into double figures and a midfielder with five or six. Whether they alone would be enough to add another 33 goals or more to progress, is less certain.
When assessing other positions such as defenders, or defensive midfielders such as Cheick Tiote, it is often hard to measure each player’s effectiveness, it is a lot down to opinion.
However, when you are looking for goalscorers then it is very easy to see if somebody has the right pedigree.
Players such as midfielders Tiote, Anita, Jonas Gutierrez and Colback, aren’t going to suddenly start knocking them in on a regular basis, their playing history tells you this is not going to happen.
The same with strikers such as Shola, if we’d kept him then he wouldn’t suddenly have started finding where the net was.
In the current squad we can only come back to Papiss Cisse and hope he somehow recovers the form he last showed over two years ago – but we all know that relying on that is football disaster waiting to happen.
Remy and Cabaye meant Newcastle got lucky last season but who are the three or more signings that Newcastle must make?
A task made all the more difficult when every other club is looking for these self same players.
With the World Cup starting today and little transfer business normally done during it, when the final whistle blows on the World Cup Final it will be less than 48 hours until Newcastle United’s first pre-season friendly of the season at Oldham.
The clock is ticking and the alarm is most definitely set!
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