An interesting study has take place which attempts to put a value on what Premier League goals are worth financially.
The answer last season was that last season (2012/13) each goal was worth on average £914,550 in prize money from the central Premier League funds via the broadcasting deals.
The clever people at the excellent Sporting Intelligence website calculated this figure by taking the total received by the 20 Premier League clubs which was a shade over £972m (which worked out an average of £48.6m per club) and between them they scored 1,063 goals – so the average value per Premier League goal was £914,550 (£972m divided by 1,053) – See table below.
With the huge jump in TV deals, the 20 clubs will receive on average around £78.5m each (from a shared total of approx £1.57bn). The current scoring rate if carried on will result in around £1.54m per goal, if around 1,019 or so goals are scored as expected from matches so far.
To show the impact of the new TV deals, that value per goal would equal an increase of over 60% on the previous season.
That value of roughly £1.5m per goal scored this season obviously only relates to the TV income, so if you then add in Commercial/Matchday income then you are talking of an even bigger value per goal, though not as high as it should be in Newcastle’s case with Ashley having massively managed to reduce those revenue streams in his time at the club.
The Sporting Intelligence analysis further points to the very close (and unsurprising) relationship between goals and points. So with only the odd exception that proves the rule; you can easily see that more goals equals more points which equals more money.
There is also a very close clear relationship between number of goals scored and number of points gained with Man U scoring 86 for 89 points, Arsenal 73/72, Chelsea 75/75, West Ham 45/46, Swansea 47/46, Newcastle 45/41 and so on, with again the odd exception proving the rule.
This season Newcastle currently have 43 points from only 37 goals, reflecting the fact we have won a lot of matches by not scoring many goals but restricting the opposition; games such as Manchester United and Spurs spring to mind. Only a handful of clubs have a bigger discrepancy of scoring so many fewer goals than the number of points they’ve won.
Unless you have an exceptional defence then scoring a lot of goals is essential to getting to the upper reaches of the league, or looking at it another way – a respectable number of goals is vital to ensuring Premier League safety.
With Cabaye and Remy missing from the team, we have looked pitiful at times in terms of creativity and goal threat – in fact not a single goal has been scored in matches where Remy has missed.
Looking towards the summer, serious questions need to be answered in terms of bringing goalscorers into the team if disaster is to be avoided.
Unless you are a big exception; not many goals will equal not many points and not many places (if any) off relegation.