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European Research Finds Only Sunderland Were Bigger Failures Than Newcastle Last Season

9 years ago

Each summer the CIES Football Observatory analayses the major European leagues and using their wealth of statistics and research, they have a model which then predicts league placings throughout each country.

Their success criteria is to overall, on average, have clubs less than 4 places removed from the predictions produced by their model.

For the 2012/13 season their model has performed well when it comes to the English Premier League, on average there was only 2.9 spaces in the table between their model and the reality.

However, two clubs stuck out as massive underachievers, only Sunderland preventing Newcastle hitting rock bottom.

As you can see, Newcastle were 7 places behind their predicted finish, with the CIES model predicting a finish of ninth compared to the reality if sixteenth, with ninth a placing that I’d guess the majority of fans would have seen as around about realistic.

In the case of the Mackems the CIES model had them down to finish one place ahead of us in eighth but of course they finished seventeenth.

One of the criteria they no doubt use is spending in the transfer market and with relatively big money signings such as Johnson and Fletcher for Sunderland and Newcastle’s nett spending next to nothing last summer, that could explain partly why our neighbours were predicted to leap forward.

We’ll keep an eye out and try and bring you their model predictions for the coming season, that could be most interesting to see where dispassionate outsiders will rate Newcastle United’s chances.

(CIES Football Observatory is dedicated to the statistical analysis of sport and has done so since 2005. Their specialism is in studying the football ‘labour market’, performance analysis at both team and player level, plus predictive models to determine the outcome of competitions.)

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