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New Study Ranks Alan Pardew As Second Best Manager In Europe Last Season

9 years ago

An intriguing study by analysts at a Spanish university have revealed that their findings make Alan Pardew the second highest ranked manager in the whole of Europe last season.

The study led by Julio Del Corral of the university of Castilla-La Mancha studied the top five European Leagues (England, Germany, France, Spain & Italy) and just pipping Pardew for the top European spot was the manager, Rene Girard, of unfashionable Montpellier who lifted the French title  in 2011-12, with a certain Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa starring for them.

The results of the study will be presented at the Fourth Spanish Conference in Sports Economics, in Madrid next month (June).

The basis for the study was looking at betting odds for football matches which can then be reconverted into probabilities for each possible result (how or away win, or draw).

If the betting market is efficient then the probabilities would reflect the real probabilities of each match. With so much time and money spent by bookies in compiling the odds and with so much at stake, it can be taken that the odds represent the agreed probabilities of the result at the time.

So you can take it that the probabilities taken from betting odds can be seen as true probabilities.

The Spanish study goes into a lot of statistical detail but the basis is that the actual results are measured against the expected results based on the bookmaker’s odds.

This then brings a table of efficiency success measured against what the odds expected, which then gave Rene Girard (linked with Newcastle recently by various media) the top spot as Montpellier massively overcame expectations, much as Newcastle and Alan Pardew did in England.

Interesting to see Liverpool & Chelsea down at the bottom alongside the likes of Wolves and Blackburn who were actually relegated.

The fact Alan Pardew was named LMA Manager Of The Year backs up these findings, in terms of how Newcastle performed above expectations last time.

I wonder where Newcastle/Alan Pardew will feature in this study when they analyse the current season…

Read the full analysis by the University here

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