How Much Is A Premier League Point Worth?
The simple answer is that it will be worth different things to different clubs, with the exact value not known until the end of season is closing in.
What would Manchester United have paid for an extra point last season when their closest rivals snatched the title in the final seconds?
This season they look more than capable of walking the title and by May another point here or there will doubtless be meaningless, what though would Mancini and his bosses pay for a few points to close the gap that has now opened up?
Newcastle fell short of Champions League qualification by five points last season, if it had been a single point then what would that have been worth? In Newcastle’s case, CL qualification would probably equal at least £20m minimum extra income but the possibility of it leading to much more.
On the other hand, the most valuable points in the modern game are those that mean the difference between staying in the Premier League and falling into the abyss that is the Championship.
If a single point makes the difference for Newcastle at the end of this season, what would it be worth to buy now?
Last season United pocketed around £55m via the TV deal/league placings, this season if we end up lower mid-table I’d guess be between £45m and £50m.
Next season those amounts are projected to go up by up to £20m, so a mid-table finish would see Newcastle United likely to earn around £70m, just from the TV deal/league placing alone.
However, any club who drops into the Championship this season would receive a parachute payment of £12m next year, plus extra bits and pieces from extra appearances on TV.
For round figures it would appear that, before taking any other spin-offs into consideration, relegation would cost Newcastle around £55m in TV money/league placings.
This of course is only scratching the surface because the long-term damage, including financially, could be a whole lot worse – as I would guess United wouldn’t find getting promotion the walk in the park it was last time.
So this brings us to the here and now. The arrival of Mathieu Debuchy is great news, if a little belated, but the fact remains that in this transfer window Newcastle have so far bought a right-back and sold the player who has done most to earn the points we have so far this season.
That sale may have been inevitable but with each passing day the lack of reinforcements could be costing Newcastle United.
The next eleven days see Newcastle face two crucial matches away at Norwich and home to Reading, then away to Villa on the 29th.
I would be amazed if Alan Pardew and everybody else at Newcastle United hasn’t marked down Reading as a must win match and avoiding defeat at Villa also as an absolute necessity. While a point must also be targeted at Norwich.
I have this horrible scenario in my head whereby 2 or 3 decent players are signed very late in January (which by the way is very much better than nobody arriving at all) and we’ve ended up only getting a point or two or less, being beaten by Villa or Reading, or even both…
The new players arrive and play against Chelsea and Spurs (the following two matches), Newcastle play a whole lot better but still lose those two matches (ghost of Christmas past?).
Potentially, United with 12 matches of the season left could then have only 21 or 22 points and go into a match against relegation rivals Southampton only days after a long trip to the Ukraine in the Europa League.
Of course, Cabaye and the rest could return and help sweep Norwich aside and follow that up with comfortable wins against Reading and Villa, with everybody once again looking up the league.
We are where we are though and Mike Ashley’s failure to buy any insurance in the summer has massively helped in leading us to this point.
Buying players won’t guarantee points but what is sure is that not buying them will make Alan Pardew’s job so much harder and leave no margin for error.
Investing in players/points NOW is surely the only sensible option for Mike Ashley.
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