Pre-match I gave 5 reasons why Newcastle could win at Liverpool – Last night backed them up
On Monday morning I had an article published on The Mag, it was entitled ‘5 reasons why Newcastle United could win away at Liverpool tonight.’
Both before and after last night’s 4-2 game, a lot of people ridiculed it.
As usual in this day and age, many of those ridiculed it based simply on the title, now what I actually had to say in the article. Such is life.
Even some of those who did read this pre Liverpool match piece, deliberately misrepresented what I had said.
I never ever said Newcastle United ‘WOULD’ win at Anfield, instead I said in the article ‘So here are my reasons why Newcastle United could (COULD not will) win at Liverpool tonight.’
In actual fact, what happened last night actually proved me right, with what I was saying before the match, how Eddie Howe and his players ‘COULD’ potentially win.
Here I will revisit the five reasons…
Sunday 27 August 2023
I said that in the 1-2 match at St James’ Park earlier this season:
‘Newcastle United were the better team when playing against 10 AND 11 men. Liverpool scored with their only two serious efforts on goal in the entire match, coming in the closing minutes when they had nothing to lose by going for it. Liverpool won the game but Newcastle United had been the far better team, creating far more chances and just wasn’t to be.’
Nothing has changed with that, Newcastle absolutely deserved back in August, Eddie Howe’s side by far the better team and on every metric were superior, apart from scoring goals. It happens, sometimes the team that was far better does on occasions lose.
Last night changes none of that.
Player availability
Pre-match I said:
‘The likely start 11 against Liverpool is…
Dubravka, Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn, Bruno, Joelinton, Longstaff, Gordon, Almiron, Isak
‘Newcastle United are nowhere near out of the woods yet in terms of having a strong matchday squad but just maybe we are seeing a little light at the end of a dark tunnel. The likes of Botman, Burn and Joelinton have all been rushed back into the matchday squad quicker than ideal, especially the two defenders, to help the manager and squad. Eddie Howe has had the sheer relative luxury of six days to work with his players and I think this trip could all be capable of putting in important contributions tonight. Plus we could also now start having a semblance of some positive substitutions from the bench, with the likes of Wilson, Lewis Miley and Livramento, that is if they don’t start. ‘
The ‘little light at the end of a dark tunnel’ ended up finding out both Wilson and Trippier were now injured!
Joelinton comes back in, we lose two others.
The ‘positive substitutions’ from the bench that were available, turned out to be… Miguel Almiron. A player who seemingly many of our fans don’t rate unless he is scoring goals.
Six days
I pointed out this as well pre-match…
‘Eddie Howe with the sheer luxury of six days between matches. Each time that has happened these past three and a half months, Newcastle United have won the games.
All of the other games since mid-September have been five days between games or less, only twice has Howe had five days, the 20+ other games in that time all seeing only three or four days in between matches. I think having the six days is even more invaluable on this occasion, with quite a few players having recently returned to the squad and now finally Eddie Howe having the chance to work on the training ground properly again, with this group.’
Those three previous wins after a six days or more gap, had come against Brentford (1-0), Palace (4-0) and Chelsea (4-1). All at St James’ Park against inferior teams compared to top of the table Liverpool at Anfield.
Last night was always going to be a tough match but Newcastle getting players back and Eddie Howe having time to work with them for once, was always going to be a positive. Except it turned out that the squad / team had been weakened yet further and that clearly with the state so many players are in after playing those seven games in a 19 day stretch in December, I clearly now see that six days was never going to be enough in the circumstances for a massive change around on that side of things. I’m not sure where the claims came from but before the match I saw it said that so many players had still been knackered, Eddie Howe hadn’t even been able to lay on proper training sessions before this Liverpool game.
The basis of may article reasoning was still good BUT the reality of the actual physical state of the NUFC squad was far worse than I imagined.
Luck
I also brought in this key factor before this Liverpool game:
‘Something that a lot of people don’t like to acknowledge. Just how big a part luck plays in so many results.
Eddie Howe has lost all five matches to Liverpool since he arrived at Newcastle United. No rational person would say that based on what happened in those games, Newcastle deserved to lose all five, it just happens.
As well as what Liverpool did to bring about those five wins, Newcastle saw luck very much against them, whether with fine margins, decisions from the match officials and VAR…
Isak’s NUFC debut and at 1-0 that dubious offside call to prevent 2-0 AND then the referee continuing the match beyond the time he had indicated, so that Liverpool got the winner. Even that freak game in February where at 2-0 down and Pope’s bizarre red card, Newcastle actually dominated and hit the woodwork and had other great chances with 10 men that could / should have seen us get something. Then of course that match in August, everything going wrong for Newcastle and everything right for Liverpool.’
This is the big one for me.
Last night proved it yet again massively. I said Newcastle needed a match where luck would go our way, including with referees and VAR.
At 0-0 if Burn’s header had stood just before half-time, rather than Isak ruled out by mm via the magnifying glass in the build up. If Longstaff had been awarded that penalty, if the two diving Liverpool forwards hadn’t been awarded their penalties.
This isn’t to say that on balance of play Liverpool didn’t deserve the win, far from it.
Instead, it simply backs up my view that we needed luck on our side on big decisions, amongst other things. If say that Burn goal had stood and the Longstaff penalty given, Newcastle could easily have scored four times. This isn’t even including then the outrageous Jota dive for that second penalty. Third and fourth goals for Newcastle would have been game changers and especially if going ahead, it creates a totally different dynamic and then Eddie Howe does bring defensive replacements on who give fresh legs, rather than having to chase the game.
Time for it
‘Sometimes it is just the time for it to happen. This ties up a bit with the luck factor. Maybe this is the night when Newcastle get just two chances and score them both, whilst everything goes wrong for Liverpool, whether it is VAR, the referee… Eddie Howe has already in just these last two years overseen his Newcastle team win three times against Man U, twice against each of Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal, once against Man City. Indeed, wins have come against four of those this season AND Spurs were hammered 6-1 less than nine months ago. So why not Liverpool?’
Yes indeed, why not Liverpool? The truth is we could and SHOULD have won for sure against Liverpool in August but it didn’t happen.
This occasion it was once again, not ‘time’ for Eddie Howe to complete his set of wins against the shameless six who have repeatedly tried to steal football, via European Super League, giving themselves extra Premier League voting rights and so on.
We didn’t get the VAR / referee decisions yet again against this lot and that played a major part in this defeat, a massive helping hand to Liverpool who were struggling to turn their dominance into goals, whilst Newcastle created significant danger at the other end from relatively so few forays into the Liverpool box.
Maybe next time…
Stats via BBC Sport:
Liverpool 4 Newcastle 2 – Monday 1 January 2024 8pm:
Goals:
Newcastle United:
Isak 54, Botman 81
Liverpool:
Salah 49, 86 pen, Jones 74, Gazpo 78
(Half-time stats in brackets)
Possession was Liverpool 63% (63%) Newcastle 37% (37%)
Total shots were Liverpool 34 (18) Newcastle 5 (1)
Shots on target were Liverpool 15 (5) Newcastle 3 (0)
Corners were Liverpool 7 (4) Newcastle 4 (2)
Referee: Anthony Taylor
Newcastle team v Liverpool:
Dubravka, Livrameto, Schar, Botman, Burn (Hall 82), Lewis Miley (Almiron 54), Guimaraes, Longstaff, Joelinton (Lascelles 82), Isak, Gordon
Unused subs:
Karius, Gillespie, Dummett, Ritchie, Krafth, Alex Murphy
(Liverpool 4 Newcastle 2 – Instant Newcastle United fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)
(Liverpool 4 Newcastle 2 – United deserved more than nil points for doggedness, defiance, 2 great finishes… Read HERE)
Newcastle United confirmed matches to end of February 2024:
Saturday 6 January 2024 – Sunderland v Newcastle (12.45pm) ITV
Saturday 13 January 2024 – Newcastle v Man City (5.30pm) TNT Sports
Tuesday 30 January 2024 – Aston Villa v Newcastle (8.15pm) TNT Sports
Saturday 3 February 2024 – Newcastle v Luton (3pm)
Saturday 10 February 2024 – Forest v Newcastle (5.30pm) Sky Sports
Saturday 17 February 2024 – Newcastle v Bournemouth (3pm)
Saturday 24 February 2024 – Arsenal v Newcastle (8pm) TNT Sports
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