What are the chances of Newcastle United going up as Champions, finishing Top Two, or simply making Top six?
Sky Sports have used their ‘Premier Predictor’ model to work out a percentage chance of these things happening.
The Sky Sports Predictor works by allocating ranking points based on teams’ performances – taking into account the difficulty of the opposition, home advantage and margin of victory.
Their predictor said a week ago (13 January 2017) that:
At least being top six was a 99% certainty for Newcastle.
As for being first or second, it was an 83% chance.
Whilst finishing as champions was a 37% possibility.
After a dramatic weekend of results which saw Newcastle win and Brighton, Reading & Huddersfield all lose, now (19 January 2017) the percentage chances are:
At least being top six is a 99% certainty for Newcastle.
As for being first or second, it is now an 82% chance.
Whilst finishing as champions is now a 47% possibility.
These are the two tables – after and before last weekend’s results.
Probability 19 January 2017:
In contrast, Brighton have gone from 57% to 44% probability to finish top according to the Sky Sports stats and from 87% to 79% to finish top two and the same as Newcastle, still a 99% certainty to be at least top six.
As for anybody else sneaking into the top two, Reading are still a 10% probability to finish top two but after beating Derby (and due to the other results), Leeds have gone from 8% to 18% probability of top two and have overtaken Reading as the most likely threat to Newcastle and Brighton.
Probability 13 January 2017: