Will Newcastle United avoid relegation?
If your life depended on it, then on balance your answer must surely be no.
There are three clubs and only one survive, Newcastle have one point (and have played a game more) less than Sunderland and two fewer than Norwich.
Looking at the remaining games, Newcastle’s are certainly no easier than the other two.
So asking simply yes or no whether Newcastle survive is too narrow, as surely most who would say yes are simply answering (at least in part) with the heart rather than head.
So instead we are asking what are the chances of Newcastle staying up?
So you can still say a full on confident 100% yes, or a very doomed 0% no – but with all the other options in between.
So please rate Newcastle’s chances of surviving this season, with four games and 12 points still to be fought for.