We asked Newcastle fans what the chances were of Newcastle United avoiding relegation?
Going into the Liverpool matches, there are three clubs and only one can survive, Newcastle have one point (and have played a game more) less than Sunderland and two fewer than Norwich.
Looking at the remaining games, Newcastle’s are certainly no easier than the other two.
So asking simply yes or no whether Newcastle survive was too narrow, as surely most who would say yes are simply answering (at least in part) with the heart rather than head.
So instead we asked what were the chances of Newcastle staying up?
So you could have said a full on confident 100% yes, or a very doomed 0% no – but with all the other options in between.
So with four games and 12 points to play for, how did the supporters rate Newcastle United’s chances of staying in the Premier League.
The first figure the probability chosen and the second figure is the percentage of supporters choosing that:
100% – 3%
90% – 2%
80% – 4%
70% – 8%
60% – 8%
50% – 19%
40% – 15%
30% – 17%
10% – 8%
0% – 6%
The overall view of Newcastle fans in our poll was that they believed the team had a 41.8% chance of staying up – would be interesting to chance a chance to find out how a win today against Liverpool and climbing (at least temporarily) out of the relegation zone would change that outlook.